Long rates

Fiscal deficits and future inflation.

Willem Buiter’s blog discusses the possibility that the fiscal measures taken today could lead to inflation tomorrow -- which could have implications for expected short rates and, therefore, for current long rates. A printable version is here.

The TUT spread -- playing the yield curve.

In the second lecture we talked about trading between ten-year and two-year bonds in order to take advantage of differences between our forecasts of the slope of the yield curve and the curves current slope. The course materials page has a link to a short paper on this topic, albeit focused on bond futures rather than bonds per se.